Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] FOREIGN welcome back to IN FOCUS with David Coletto. I'm David Coletto. Today, with only two weeks left in the federal election campaign, we're going to talk about something that I think is quietly but importantly shaping this race. Liberal leader Mark Carney's remarkably high favorability ratings and the fact that these negatives aren't going up as this campaign goes on. Let's set the stage. Now our most recent ABACUS data survey that I released yesterday shows the Liberals with a four point lead over the Conservatives. Now, in ordinary circumstances, a modest lead like this might not seem insurmountable, especially with two weeks to go and the leaders debates just around the corner. But this campaign has been anything but ordinary, particularly because Mark Carney's personal popularity has grown during this race while his negatives have remained fairly low and flat. What's surprising is that we've had no shortage of drama.
[00:01:11] Donald Trump and his tariffs and his threats on Canadian sovereignty have really overshadowed the conversation in this campaign. And Mark Carney has been, I think, one of the main beneficiaries politically of that. And while the opposition parties, Pierre Poliev, Jagmeet Singh, Yves Francois Blanchette have tried to respond to focus the public's attention on other things, the bigger story seems to be, in my view, how Canadians are rallying around Kearney as a steady hand during these uncertain times. So just how good are Carney's numbers? Well, across the country in our most recent Survey completed on April 10, Carney's net favorable rating is +20.
[00:01:57] Generally, we see incumbents experience a dip in popularity once a campaign is in full swing. I can't remember very many elections in which the party leaders views have gotten better, not worse, over the course of a campaign, especially since by all accounts, Mark Carney is the frontrunner and usually all attacks are pointed in that front runner's direction. But this time Carney's positives have actually increased since the campaign began and that's pretty rare.
[00:02:24] Now by region we see Carney's net favorable, which is you take the positive and you subtract negative and you get a Net favorable is +32 in Atlantic Canada, +34 in Quebec, +23 in Ontario, +16 in British Columbia and in Alberta. Even, even there it's not that bad, minus 11 outside the Prairies he's posting strong positive numbers. And even in Alberta, as I said, being only 11 points underwater is quite frankly a pretty decent showing for a liberal in Alberta, given the province's conservative lean. Now Carney's popularity also transcends typical demographic divides by age. He's well liked by younger, older and middle aged voters. This across the board acceptance is unusual, especially considering how polarized some recent elections have been. We see Mark Carney with favorables, healthy favorables among both men and women and even among conservatives. And this is the kicker. 13% of those who would vote conservatives today say they have a positive view of Mark Carney, with 59% holding a negative view. Now, you might be thinking that's a lot of negative opinions, but keep in mind, this is the other team. And back in 2015, Justin Trudeau was viewed pretty similarly. But since then, good luck finding a conservative that would have anything positive to say about Trudeau today.
[00:03:46] Now, by education, interestingly, among Canadians with a university degree, Carney's NET favorable is +31. These are his target. Urban, educated, older voters are right now the solid place for the liberals and Mr. Carney. Now, interestingly, even among those who say they definitely want to see a change in government, it's about 51% of the electorate, 26% have a positive view of Mark Carney compared with 51 who have a negative view. And so there's even some of those change voters that might be looking at Carney with a positive perspective.
[00:04:25] Now, what's fascinating is when we compare Carney's numbers to other federal leaders at this same point in previous federal elections. Now, no leader except for the late Jack Layton in 2011, had such a widespread likability. Two weeks before voting day, Layton's orange wave was starting to build, and we saw him having a plus 38 at that point in the campaign. But Carney seems to be following that same trajectory. While the Conservative campaign under Pierre Poliev might have hoped to capitalize on economic concerns, trying to undermine Carney's experience as a, as a board chair of Brookfield, his past experience as a banker, you know, the fact that he has lived overseas, all of those things have hurt liberal leaders in the past. This time it really hasn't stuck at all, no matter what they've tried to do. Carney's reputation as a former central banker, I think has signaled to vogue that he's kind of calm, experienced, measured at a time when they're, I think many people are looking for exactly that. Now, why does any of this matter? Well, in my view, elections in Canada can turn quickly, especially in a world where events, you know, will spread really quickly online and around. But two weeks out, I do think time is running short for the opposition parties to change public perceptions. You know, the looming leaders debate on Wednesday and Thursday this week are critical. I'll have more on that later this week. If the Conservatives, New Democrats or the Bloc hope to close the gap, they'll need to substantially alter how Canadians see Carney. If Carney maintains these favorables, the Liberals are in a strong position to win again. Sometimes all it takes is for half the electorate to have a favorable view of a leader for that momentum to be unstoppable. And I think we are close to that right now. Now, for now, what's making headlines is not Pierre POV's inability to pivot around Trump's chaotic announcements, nor the lack of visibility from the NDP or Bloc. Instead, it's that no opposition party has successfully painted Carney in a negative light. And if we look back at past elections, the opposition parties tried to do that to Trudeau in 2015 and it didn't work. The this time around, if they've tried, it also hasn't worked. So as we head into these final two weeks of the campaign, keep an eye on how the leaders debates unfold. Do Carney's opponents land any blows that might dampen his personal popularity? Are Canadians suddenly moved by Conservative or NDP attacks that cast Carney's record in a negative way? Or does he continue to float above the fray, sustaining a level of goodwill we don't often see in incumbent prime ministers?
[00:07:07] Some, like the block leader, Yves Francois Blanchette, has said that Mark Carney is hiding, that the campaign's trying to keep him out, trying to play safe. Well, if Carney holds on to that goodwill and if he is able to resist the attacks that are going to be coming to him this week, it's tough to imagine a scenario where the Liberals lose this election. Opposition parties will need a game changing moment to redefine him in the public eye. And that window is getting narrower, but by the day. Well, that's it for In Focus with David Coletto today. Thanks for tuning in. If you've got questions, comments, or you want to see the numbers yourself, check us out at Abacus Data CA. You can also see my insights and analysis at davidcolletto.substack.com Please subscribe, follow this podcast wherever you listening and we'll be back to you later this week with reaction to the leaders debates on Friday. Till next time, stay tuned, stay informed, stay engaged. Thanks for listening. Take care.
