Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Foreign.
[00:00:17] Well, hey everyone, welcome back to In Focus with David Coletto. I'm David Coletto. Well, it's Sunday, which means it's a new day of prayer. Polling from my company, Abacus Data, we released our fourth poll of the campaign, this one conducted from March 31st to April 3rd, mostly done before Donald Trump's, quote, Liberation Day, in which he announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on almost every country in the world, notably Canada was off that list, although many tariffs remain on autos, oil and gas and steel and aluminum. So the numbers you're about to hear capture a moment just prior to that piece of news hitting. And so it doesn't yet capture any effect that that has. But there's some noteworthy shifts happening in our numbers and if you've been following along, you know this campaign has been defined by two major storylines. One, the ongoing economic concerns here at home, everything from housing costs to affordability to healthcare capacity problems. Two, we've also been focused on the unpredictable moves of President Trump in the United States, who has threatened tariffs, annexation on and off again over the last number of weeks. Now, does that relief from tariffs that appears to be in play help Mark Carney and the Liberals by showcasing his diplomatic skill, or does it shift the conversation back to affordability and time for a change? I focused on that on a previous episode of this podcast.
[00:01:53] So let's start with the top line numbers of our most recent Abacus data survey. Nationally, the Conservatives and the Liberals remain tied at 39% each, with the NDP sitting well back in third at 11%. No other party passes 6%. That's exactly what we had last week. So in terms of raw support, the horse race, this race is still at a standstill and not a lot is changing. Of course, in Canada's first pass the POE system, a tie in overall vote share can still tilt one way or the other depending on how those votes are distributed. And historically, the Liberals have enjoyed a more efficient vote support in crucial suburban ridings urban parts of the country.
[00:02:38] But at times, the Conservatives have been proven more adept at mobilizing their base. These two forces are at work in this campaign as well.
[00:02:47] This time around in this survey, there are some strong indications that maybe Conservative supporters are becoming more engaged and mobilized than they have been so far. Now, one notable shift is that Conservative supporters are now more likely to say they're going to vote than Liberals. This has not been the case for the previous three surveys.
[00:03:08] 75% of self identified Conservative supporters say they will definitely vote in this election, compared to 71% of Liberals, not a huge gap, but a noteworthy one given what we've seen previously. Meanwhile, the accessible voter pool, I think still an important indicator, maybe more so than the horse race, tells the opposite story. For the Liberals, their pool of potential supporters has inched above 55%, particularly strong in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia compared to the conservatives at 51%. This wider universe of potential Liberal votes translates into more possible pathways to winning the election, winning a majority and getting that advantage in seats on election day. The Conservatives still command a respectable base and remain competitive, but their pool of accessible voters isn't growing at the same pace as the Liberals.
[00:04:01] Let's break it down by province. In British Columbia, we've got a near tie between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP struggling to gain traction. In Ontario, the Liberals have opened up a six point lead from just about three or four points a week ago. Given Ontario's seat density, that margin could be very decisive. In Quebec, the Liberals remain in first place. But noteworthy, the Conservatives have nudged up into a statistical tie with the Bloc Quebecois, although they still trail the liberals by 10 point. This is a modest breakthrough for the Tories, perhaps in Quebec, something we're going to continue to monitor to see if this is a blip or perhaps a new trend. Finally, in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead is nearing 20 points, consolidating their stronghold in those eastern provinces. Now, the desire for change, I think an important measure when a government that's been in office for almost 10 years is facing re election, continues to stand at 54%. That's the number of Canadians who say they definitely want to see a change in government and is unchanged from last week, while 22% strongly prefer Re electing the Liberals. Yet paradoxically, the number of Canadians who believe the Liberals will actually win keeps climbing. It's now at 43% compared to 33% who expect a Conservative victory. That gap between wanting change and expecting the Liberals to stay in power could simply reflect the Liberals historical seat efficiency or all of the coverage that the polls have been given in the media, shaping perceptions about the state of this race. Now, when we look at how people feel about the leaders, there's good news here for Mark Carney. His net favorability, subtract the positive from the negative, now stands at plus 15, a four point improvement from last week. He is particularly strong among older voters, women and urban residents living in provinces like Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Conservative leader Pierre Poliev has also improved his net favorable scores slightly to a minus 4, with 38 positive and 42 negative, perhaps suggesting softening of some earlier negative perceptions that we had seen rising in the polls. Now, when we ask who would Canadians prefer to be prime minister after the election, Mark Carney leads by five points over Pierre Poliev, 38% to 33, pretty much unchanged from the last survey we did. We also continue to track who owns a number of issues, and we see a clear distinction between the Liberals and the Conservatives. For the Liberals, they lead by 10 on handling Donald Trump by 5 on growing the economy, and 10 on representing Canada internationally. They're also seen to be better, perhaps at keeping Canada united, ahead of the Conservatives by seven points. Now, the Conservatives lead on a number of other issues. On reducing the cost of living, they're ahead by eight. On housing, by seven, both issues that have animated voters worried about both affordability and the rising cost of mortgage and rent fees and costs.
[00:07:14] So what's driving choice at this stage? Well, on one side, many Canadians, especially younger and middle aged ones, are focused more on affordability. That's where Pierre Poliev is strongest. On the other side, Trump's volatile stance on tariffs, his threats against Canada, keeping foreign policy and trade squarely on the agenda. Mark Carney and the Liberals have leveraged their perceived strength in dealing with the US Administration, branding Carney as a captain as a safe pair of hands who can steer Canada through these tough waters.
[00:07:48] Now, until now, Trump's threats have overshadowed talks of domestic politics for many Canadians. But with Canada's exemption, perhaps from these new reciprocal tariffs announced earlier last week, does that shift the conversation back to the cost of living? Or does it actually reinforce Carney's credibility in dealing with these crises?
[00:08:11] Our data can't answer that question right now, but we'll continue to track and try to anticipate what, if any, impact last week has had on the polls. Now, our new poll, conducted from March 31 to April 3, mostly prior to Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, shows a close, fluid and deeply engaged electorate.
[00:08:33] And this election is as close as it can be, given where we were just a few months ago. The Liberals hold a broader pool of potential voters, stronger leads on certain foreign policy issues, and a clear rising star in Mark Carney, now with a plus 15 net favorable rating. The Conservatives, for their part, have locked in a committed base lead on economic and affordability issues and have just vaulted ahead in voter enthusiasm. Add to this a broad willingness among Canadians, 54% to see a change in government, and it's clear the Conservatives are far from out of the running. In truth, the future course of this campaign may turn on whether Canadians continue to feel anxious about Trump or whether the crisis atmosphere eases now that Canada appears to maybe have been spared from some of the worst of these tariffs, although there are still some that are really acute for many sectors of the economy.
[00:09:32] If the focus pivots back to bread and butter issues like affordability, I think Pierre Poliev gains a fresh opening to go after the Liberals on a history of high inflation and housing costs. But if Carney's perceived success in warding off a new round of terrorists cements him as the steady hand, I think it reinforces his hold on crucial swing voters. Either way, we're down to the last three weeks before Election Day, and it's anybody's guess which storyline will seize the public's attention. Well, that's it for now for this episode of In Focus with David Coletto. I'll be back soon with some more insights on research and surveys that we are conducting at Abacus Data. Again, if you like what you heard, please subscribe or follow this podcast wherever you're listening. Share with anyone you think would find it interesting. And as always, on my substack davidcolletto.substack.com and on the Abacus Data website, you will find a ton of new content analysis and insights you're not going to find anywhere else from me and my team. Take care and we'll talk soon.
