Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Foreign.
[00:00:20] Well, hey, everyone. Welcome back to In FOCUS with David Coletto. I'm David Coletto, and I'm thrilled to bring you another episode. Canadian politics is fascinating today. As many of you know, Canada is likely on the cusp of a new federal election, one that pits two relatively fresh faces against each other. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office just a few days ago, and the leadership of the Liberal Party over a week ago. And Pierre Poliev, who has been leading the Conservatives for more than two years. This race is shaping up to be incredibly close, far closer than I thought it would have been just a few months ago. In today's episode, I want to walk you through an in depth piece I wrote over on my substack called Mark Carney versus Pierre Unpacking Public Perceptions. There, I shared some data from our latest Abacus data survey and some analysis on how Canadians view these two leaders. And if you haven't checked it out, head over to davidcolletto.substack.com 1l2t's to read the full article.
[00:01:25] So let's start by outlining the big picture. We have Mark Carney, who brings a strong background in economics and crisis management, having served as the governor of both the bank of Canada and the bank of England. On the other side, we have the Conservative leader Pierre Poliev, who's positioned himself as a champion of major change, someone determined to tackle the cost of living crisis, build more homes, deal with crime, he argues, and most importantly, break the status quo. Now, my recent survey aimed to go beyond the simple horse race. I wanted to see how people view these leaders and why they feel the way they do, testing some perceptions, things that people have said about them that they have may have said about themselves, things like, you know, Justin Trudeau, sorry, Mark Carney is just like Trudeau or Pierre Poliev, supported at the altar of Donald Trump and gauging whether Canadians felt these attributes were both first true or false. And if true, is that a good or bad thing? This approach helps us to see not just what voters believe, but how those beliefs could influence their impressions of the leaders and ultimately their voting behavior. So let's first talk about Mark Carney. One finding from the research, 56%, just over half of Canadians, think Carney will continue many of Justin Trudeau's policies. Of that group, if asked, is that true, 57% would view that as a negative. Meanwhile, 60% believe Mark Carney understands how to run an economy, which overwhelmingly is seen by a positive among Canadians. If that is true, now, just under half believe Mark Carney has considerable crisis management experience. About two thirds, again, would say that's a good thing if it's tr. There's a tension here, right? On the one hand, Mark Carney's background in central banking is absolutely a huge asset for voters who care right now about economic competence, stability, and navigating the storm, really, that Donald Trump has created. On the other hand, if he's perceived as simply an extension of Trudeau, voters who are hungry for change. And at some points last year, we saw close to 85% of Canadians saying they wanted a change in government.
[00:03:42] If that is the case, he faces that hurdle. Now, how he distinguishes himself from the former prime minister while still capitalizing on his reputation as a steady economic hand, I think is going to be crucial as we go through these early days of the Carney government and as we head into an election. Now, Pierre Poliev, on the Conservative side, he scores well with Canadians. In our survey, we still showed that 38% of Canadians have a positive view of Mr. Poliev, even as his negatives continue to rise. Now, 71% of Canadians believe he will take the country in a very different direction than Donald, than Justin Trudeau, and 53% think if that's true, that will be a good thing. So that is a solid change vote base. That desire for change exists and people want. There's a sizable number of people who want to see a different direction from. From Justin Trudeau. Now, 49% of Canadians believe that Poliev understands how tough things are and will do what he can to make life better for people. And if true, seven in 10 Canadians say that would be a good thing. Now, he does have an image problem and an image gap, right? Only 17% of Canadians believe that it is definitely true that Pierre Poliev is friendly and kind.
[00:05:03] 51% believe that he supported Donald Trump.
[00:05:07] And a majority of Canadians would see that as a bad thing if true. So that suggests that while Poliev's message of change clearly resonates, he risks, and he maybe already is, alienating more moderate voters who believe he's too associated with Trump or perceived as too harsh. So balancing that toughness with a bit more approachability might be the key to winning over those swing voters who are open to a new direction, but also cautious about extreme populism.
[00:05:45] Now, one of the most fascinating pieces of data, we identified the 16% of the electorate right now who say they could vote either for the Liberals or the Conservative. That's a huge slice of the electorate. And I think likely the group that's going to determine the outcome of this election, given that our most recent survey has the Conservatives just ahead by four points. Now, of this group, 15% think both Carney and Poliev could be strong leaders. For the moment Canada faces, among those who see them as viable, a good chunk currently would vote Liberal. But there's enough support for Poliev to suggest that these voters aren't locked into one choice. Whether Carney can differentiate himself sufficiently from Trudeau while highlighting his economic credentials, and whether Poliev can reassure moderate voters about his style and substance on issues like Trump, I think will matter a great deal to this swing group. So if you're curious about how these voters exactly break down, check out that substack piece. I've got charts and additional numbers there that I think help understand this. So what does this, all this mean as we inch closer and closer to an election? I think first, Carney's challenge. He needs to show he's not simply Trudeau 2.0. Yes, he's a Liberal, but he also brings a wealth of financial and crisis management expertise. I mean, Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, pretty much gave Mark Carney as good an endorsement, I guess, as you can, describing him as the person in the world who is best with numbers. He's got to make that contrast, though, clear. I think if he wants to persuade those who are tired of the Trudeau era. Now, for Poliev, it's more of a balancing act. Right? The Conservative leader benefits from this desire for change. 10 years for any government is often past its natural life.
[00:07:32] Poliev is talking about not electing a fourth term for the Liberals, but he has to broaden his appeal beyond the core Time for Change audience, which is shrinking as more and more focus on the threat that Trump poses. So overcoming doubts about his personal character, his warmth, his friendliness, his likability and distancing himself from Trudeau, excuse me, from Trump, is kind of important, and particularly for that 16% who are open to voting, both Liberal and Conservative. So both leaders are polling closely on best to lead. And there was a question we asked on a survey we put out. I talked about it in my podcast yesterday. Who, between Poliev and Carney, do you think would be best to captain a ship through a rough storm and more or less they were statistically tied. That, to me, is the, the question that voters are going to answer as we get closer and closer to an election as election kicks off.
[00:08:31] So, a few closing thoughts.
[00:08:34] I think you can read the full piece on my substack davidcolletto.substack.com I hope this gives you some insight into some of the dynamics at play and the ability for research to understand really what voters, what people, what audiences perceive to be true or not, whether if that perception is true, how they would react to it and what that means for both Mr. Carney and Mr. Poliev as they set things up. We'll be monitoring, you know, these perceptions over time. I'm curious to see how they evolve and we'll make sure to share them on this site. So thanks for listening. And again, if you haven't already, please subscribe to this podcast wherever you listen to podcasts. I plan to send more, more and more content out than I usually do. And as well, subscribe to my substack davidcolletto.descap.com you'll find all the numbers charts, detailed analysis you won't find anywhere else. Until next time, I'm David Coletto. We'll chat.
