Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Foreign.
[00:00:20] Hey, everybody. Welcome back to In Focus with David Coletto. I'm David Coletto. Well, Mark Carney made it official earlier today, visiting the Governor General and asking her to dissolve Parliament and call an election for April 28th.
[00:00:36] And just this morning, my company, Abacus Data, released some brand new polling data that shows just how competitive and fluid this election campaign may be. Whether you're a seasoned political junkie or just tuning into Canadian politics, stick around for a clear breakdown of the numbers and what they mean for the leaders, the parties and everyone who's watching.
[00:01:02] So let's start with where voters are.
[00:01:06] According to our survey of 1500 eligible voters conducted from March 17th to 20th, the Conservatives are at 39%, the Liberals at 36. The NDP is down to 12%, which is the weakest showing we've measured for Jagmeet Singh and the NDP since he was elected leader. You'll recall the NDP performed well enough in 2021 to hold the balance of power in a Liberal minority government. They're now losing ground to both the Conservatives and the Liberals. But here's an important point. While the Conservatives remain ahead in our voting, the gap closes among those most likely to vote. And the Liberals have a larger pool of potential voters who say they'd consider voting for them.
[00:01:51] And so the Conservatives, with their narrow lead and with a vote that is firmer than the Liberals, they have less room to grow. It's a bit like comparing two big fishing nets. One has slightly more fish right now. Those are the Conservatives. But the other net, the Liberals, might pull up a bigger catch in the end if conditions are just right now, voter engagement is through the roof. Already, 72% of Canadians say they are interested in this election. Way higher than what we saw at the start of the 2021 campaign, where only 53% felt that way. That means more eyes are on the news, more chatter on social media, and possibly more volatility in the polls. And There's a reason 57% of Canadians say they definitely want a change in government, matching levels of dissatisfaction we haven't seen in a federal race since 2015.
[00:02:46] But does that doom the liberals? Not necessarily. 21% definitely want to see them re elected. And a further slice are open to the idea. So while higher demand for change, there's still a path for the Liberals. Now, soft support is a big part of the story. Although three quarters of Conservative voters say they firmly decided, less than six in 10 Liberal supporters and only about four in 10 NDP supporters feel the same way. In other words, the Conservative Base is more immovable. We've known that for a long time. While the Liberal and NDP bases might shift if they see something they like or dislike on the campaign trail.
[00:03:34] Now, regional diversity always shapes federal elections and here's a quick snapshot. In Ontario, we've got a real nail biter. With the Liberals and Conservatives very close, Ontario's a must watch. The Conservatives are slightly ahead in the Greater Toronto area. The Liberals are ahead in the formal 416. In British Columbia, another tighter race. Historically, BC can swing from race to race with these numbers. The Liberals and Conservatives are much closer than they've been in a really long time, suggesting the Liberals racking up big numbers in the Lower mainland and the Conservatives holding their own in the interior of the province. In Quebec, the Liberals remain well ahead of the block. The Conservatives are in third, the NDP barely showing. In Atlantic Canada, we see the Liberals opening up a solid lead in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, P.E.I. and Newfoundland and Labrador, continuing a trend that we've seen in other polls and that we've seen in our own over the last number of weeks. Meanwhile, the Conservative heartland remains in the Prairies, but their coalition may be showing signs of strain. Even in Alberta, we see the Liberal vote rising to around 20%, potentially putting some seats in Edmonton and Calgary into play.
[00:04:55] Let's talk leaders. Mark Carney, the former bank of Canada Governor turned Prime Minister, has a higher net positive rating than his rivals. He has a net favorable of plus 12, better than Pierre Poliev who's at minus 9 and Jagmeet Singh who is at minus 13. Interestingly, Carney leads Poliev when voters are asked who they prefer to see as Prime Minister. Carney leads by four points overall and in a direct head to head choice, that margin goes up to 56% for Carney and 44% for Poliev. Poliev, for his part, has a solid base. Conservative supporters are loyal with 92% saying they take him over Carney in a two way matchup. Where Poliev really shines is on cost of living issues and housing, topics that matter a lot to everyday Canadians. But he does have higher negatives on attributes, with many people describing him as fake or untrustworthy. Jagmeet Singh, meanwhile, hasn't been able to convert generally warm personal impressions that have helped him in previous elections. Today, his negatives are higher than both Pierre Poliev and Mark Carney. Even though people tend to find him compassionate and friendly, he isn't relevant in their eyes today. And the NDP, as I mentioned earlier, slipping to 12% in vote intentions as many voters flee the New democrats into Mark Carney's arms. For now.
[00:06:26] What drives voters? Well, two massive issues top the list. Cost of living. Around 45% of Canadians rated as one of their top two concerns that would impact their vote.
[00:06:37] This benefits the Conservatives. Donald Trump is number two. Yes, the current US President and his continued influence weigh heavily on a third of Canadians who worry about Trump's impact on Canada's security, its sovereignty, its economy, and so much more. Among those voters who say that Donald Trump is one of their top two issues, the Liberals lead by an astonishing 30 points. That dynamic basically sums up the race. If the campaign revolves around pocketbook issues, the Conservatives have the inside track. If the focus turns to global uncertainty, foreign interference, tariffs or annexation, the so called Trump factor, Mark Carney's Liberals can make real gains.
[00:07:23] So how does all this shake out with the campaign just getting underway? Well, 57% of Canadians want change, but a big chunk of them might be flexible about which party or leader they support. We also know Carney is reassembling the old Liberal coalition, especially in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. While the Liberals gain support from an NDP that is bleeding support. The Conservatives keep their prairie fortress for now. But even there we're seeing glimpses of a Liberal recovery. Given the fluidity of Liberal and NDP votes, we could see major shifts, especially if a big event or well received policy announcement changes the conversation. And with interest in this election so high, momentum could build quickly for any party that finds a message that connects particularly on affordability or on Trump.
[00:08:19] Well, that's where we stand. Just days in or just hours in to the 2025 federal election. The Conservatives hold a narrow edge in our tracking, but the Liberals have a bigger potential voter pool. The NDP is struggling to stay in the game and the desire for change is is real, though not guaranteed. Mark Carney's strong personal numbers give the Liberals a clear fighting chance, while Poiliev's firm base offers a sturdy starting line. Jag Min Singh, in turn, will need a breakout moment to revitalize his party's fortunes. Thanks for listening to In Focus with David Coletto. If you'd enjoyed this, you want more of it? Subscribe. Make sure you get the latest episode. We'll be doing a number of these every single week and we'll be back soon with more insights on this campaign on what voters are thinking on its relationship with a whole bunch of other things. And if you like this kind of stuff, subscribe to my substack. Davidcolletto1l2t's substack.com. until next time, I'm David Coletto. Stay informed, stay curious, and hey, we'll chat again soon.
[00:09:28] Sa.
