2026 Begins with a Familiar Political Horse Race

[00:00:00] Foreign. [00:00:19] As 2026 begins, Abacus Data is out with our first national snapshot of the federal political landscape. [00:00:27] Welcome back to In Focus with David Coletto. I'm David Coletto, and if the top line results feel familiar, it is because they are. The Liberals and Conservatives remain locked in the dead heat nationally, and Canadians are still feeling cautious about the country's direction and the broader economy. But underneath the surface, there are subtle and important shifts that could shape the year ahead. [00:00:49] First, the mood has not improved. Today, 35% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while almost half say it is off on the wrong track. The broader world looks even darker in the minds of the public. Only 11% think the world is headed in the right direction, and just 12% feel the same way about the United States. Second, recession expectations remain widespread. Nearly half of Canadians believe we are currently in a recession, compared to just about 4 in 10 who say it is not. Younger Canadians are more likely to believe we are in a recession, and perceptions are are also shaped heavily by one's political outlook now. Third, affordability remains the dominant issue. Six in 10 Canadians say the rising cost of living should be the federal government's top priority. But the biggest shift we are seeing is the return of Donald Trump to the centre of Canadian political attention. [00:01:42] His administration now rank among the top tier of concerns again with 35% of respondents, some citing it as one of their top three issues alongside the economy and healthcare. With renewed global instability, Canadians increasingly see external events as tied directly to domestic economic and security risk leader impressions are also moving in different directions. Prime Minister Carney remains net positive with a 13 net favorable score and relatively stable impressions across most regions and demographic groups. Conservative leader Pierre Poliev, however, remains NET negative at -12 and this wave records his highest level of negative impressions we've captured since we began tracking the upshot Canada enters 2026 in a competitive but fragile equilibrium. Voters are paying attention. They're weighing risks at home and abroad and are still waiting for a reason to commit fully to one side. [00:02:39] You can read the full release and detailed results on our website at abacusdata ca. [00:02:45] I'll try to be back on this podcast more frequently. Hope you have a great day and talk to you soon. [00:03:08] Sa.